External environment analysis slp essay

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External environment analysis slp essay

Global sea level rise on faster pace than expected. Before delving into the recent Nerem et al. The IPCC AR5 Chapter 3 acknowledges that a long time series is needed to detect acceleration in sea level rise from human caused climate change.

From Cazenave et al The rate of sea level rise.

External environment analysis slp essay

Here we present an analysis that separates interannual natural variability in sea level from the longer-term change probably related to anthropogenic global warming.

In stark contrast to this expectation however, current altimeter products show the rate of sea level rise to have decreased from the first to second decades of the altimeter era. Here, a combined analysis of altimeter data and specially designed climate model simulations shows the eruption of Mt Pinatubo to likely have masked the acceleration that would have otherwise occurred.

This masking arose largely from a recovery in ocean heat content through the mid to late s subsequent to major heat content reductions in the years following the eruption.

A consequence of this finding is that barring another major volcanic eruption, a detectable acceleration is likely to emerge from the noise of internal climate variability in the coming decade. This follows recent publications by Cazenave et al.

Apart from several additional years of data, the acceleration hinges on the new adjustment to the TOPEX record during the period recommended by Beckley et al.

The implication that this is associated with human-caused climate change comes from this statement: Coupled with the average climate-change—driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.

The flip from deceleration to acceleration hinges on a substantial adjustment to the first 6 years of the TOPEX record, which is associated with much greater uncertainty than the later JASON data.

Re Nerem et al I think that the application of a quadratic fit is not justified at all. I digitized the Fig. The residuals in annual resolution: See and In the raw data the ENSO blop is reduced in but not in the paper whrere the data end in the end of The relation stands and in the end they have a ENSO-blop which influences a trend very much.

Together with the data before this gives only a plea to estimate a quadratic trend. This could have been seen also in their Figure 2: As a reviewer I would have asked for an annual resolved record and would have pointed to the ElNino in the end of the record. In my opinion, the value of the altimeter data is in understanding regional and interannual variability, and that the first 6 years of altimeter data should be pretty much ignored in climate change arguments.

In any event, the altimeter data set is not useful by itself owing to its short length for detecting long-term accelerations that could be attributed to human-caused climate change. The bigger issue of whether there is a detectable signal from humans in the record of sea level rise will be addressed in Part V.

A recent paper by Chen et al. From Chen et al Specifically, the unadjusted data refers to omitting the glacial isostatic adjustment GIA or Global Positioning System GPS data set to correct for the effects of vertical land motion. Figure 5 shows a deceleration using the unadjusted rates of SLR.

Southwest Airlines - External Environment Analysis Essay - 1

With regards to the sea level rate figure bottomdetails are not given regarding exactly what it represents, but it appears to be calculated from 10 year averages. The implication is that any acceleration in rates is largely associated with the VLM adjustments.

InNils Axel Morner published a paper that points out that the raw satellite data shows barely any rise: Satellite altimetry is somewhat unique in that many adjustments must be made to the raw range measurements to account for atmospheric delays ionosphere, troposphereocean tides, variations in wave height which can bias how the altimeter measures sea leveland a variety of other effects.

In addition, the sea level measurements can be affected by the method used to process the altimeter waveforms, and by the techniques and data used to compute the orbit of the satellite.

External environment analysis slp essay

It was first observed in sea level via a comparison to tide gauges, and was verified to be caused by the TMR via comparisons to other orbiting microwave radiometers and radio- sondes.External Environment Analysis SLP.

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Sea level rise acceleration (or not): Part IV – Satellite era record | Climate Etc.